Where Will It Be in 1 Year (Dec 17)

Shares of Rivian Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN) are 2.5% higher than a week ago. The company held its first dedicated AI event, unveiling its custom computer chip designed to power autonomous driving software. It also has announced a workforce reduction of 4%. The share price is 16.7% higher than a year ago, outperforming the S&P 500 in that time.

• The EV market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 32% through 2030, but Rivian Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN) forecast lower deliveries for 2025 than in 2024.

• Rivian stock had been trending upward recently despite facing challenges. Here is a look at where the stock could be in a year.

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Shares of electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer Rivian have been on a rollercoaster this year, surging and then falling after its first-quarter report. They recovered somewhat since the second-quarter report. In the latest results, revenue was up slightly year over year to $1.6 billion. The company posted a narrower-than-expected loss. The company noted this quarter was likely its strongest delivery quarter of the year due to the expiration of federal EV tax credits. Wall Street sentiment on the stock was mixed after the report.

The stock is 72.8% higher since its year-to-date low in April, despite facing challenges from reduced delivery targets and tariff pressures. However, it is countering those headwinds with cost efficiencies, strategic partnerships, and the anticipated R2 SUV launch next year. 24/7 Wall St. conducted some analysis to give investors a better idea of where they can expect the stock to be in a year. Let’s take a look at whether Rivian can overcome its hurdles and return to growth.

Rivian is grappling with significant obstacles. Third-quarter deliveries totaled 13,201 vehicles, a 32.2% increase year over year. This comes as Rivian prepares for the launch of its 2026 model year vehicles. The company reaffirmed its 2025 delivery guidance of 41,500 to 43,500 vehicles. It cited softening demand due to the expired EV tax credits, as well as economic uncertainties and shifting consumer sentiment, as well as tariffs that are increasing manufacturing costs. So, sales for the current quarter could be weak.

A $5.8 billion joint venture with Volkswagen, with $1 billion turned over in June 2025, bolsters Rivian’s $7.2 billion in cash, equivalents, and short-term investments. The R2, a $45,000 midsize SUV set for 2026 production in Illinois, targets broader appeal, while plant upgrades—including a planned month-long shutdown in the second half of 2025—aim to boost efficiency by 30%.

Further, the EV market is expected to grow at a 32% CAGR through 2030, though Rivian projects full-year 2025 revenue of $4.7 billion to $4.9 billion, which at the midpoint is down from $4.97 billion last year. The hope is that the new R2 release and fleet sales could boost revenue further.

For its part, Rivian has now seen consecutive quarters of positive gross profit. The EV maker just completed a 1.2 million sq. ft. manufacturing facility in Normal, Illinois, with plans for another facility in Georgia underway. That second facility could add an additional 400,000 units of annual capacity. As of the end of the third quarter, the company reported $71 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments.

In its most recent earnings call, Rivian reported $24 million of gross profit, making it the third consecutive quarter the company has seen positive gross profit figures. To address some challenges, the company also maintained its capex guidance of $1.8 billion to $1.9 billion to help it address issues about its lagging deliverables.

More recently, the company said it aims to raise $1.25 billion through a private bond sale to refinance 2026 debt. It also said it would invest nearly $120 million in a new facility in Illinois to fortify its supply chain and increase production capacity for R1 and R2 models.

There are lingering concerns about how much tariffs will affect Rivian, though. Material costs are expected to be elevated, equating to a few thousand dollars of impact per unit produced in 2025. Additionally, the company—despite seeing positive gross profit—has recorded adjusted EBITDA losses of $602 million, which it attributes to ongoing investment in R2 and key technologies.

Although the company manufactures 100% of its vehicles in the United States, tariff uncertainty presents a challenge to near-term growth prospects. However, Rivian is not focusing strictly on individual consumers. In its first quarter, the company announced a partnership with HelloFresh, which has incorporated 70 Rivian Commercial Vans into its fleet. This marks the first major fleet customer for the EV maker since van sales opened more broadly earlier in 2025.

Since its 2021 IPO, Rivian’s stock has been volatile, soaring to $180 before crashing by 90%. After hitting a year-to-date low of $10.36 in April, it rebounded in May, supported by first-quarter gross profit and Volkswagen funding. However, the share price is down 85.1% since going public.

Wall Street sentiment remains cautious, with a consensus Hold rating from 25 analysts. Their average price target has risen to $15.75 per share, which is still less than the current share price. Individual targets range from $10.00 to $25.00 per share. Morgan Stanley recently downgraded the stock to Underweight, citing a cautious outlook for the electric vehicle market and risks associated with the planned 2026 R2 launch. Goldman Sachs reiterated its Neutral rating but boosted its price target.

Institutional investors hold 44.3% of the company’s outstanding shares. Interestingly, the largest holder of Rivian stock is not Vanguard, BlackRock, or another financial services firm. It is Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN), which holds more than 158 million shares.

Rivian’s cost efficiencies, gross profit milestone, and R2 launch position it for growth. Yet, tariff uncertainties and demand softness require investor caution. With 32% projected EV market growth and strategic partnerships, Rivian could achieve modest delivery gains going forward. Its cash buffer and Volkswagen deal offer some stability, but execution risks remain. Rivian should only be considered a speculative buy for risk-tolerant investors betting on its long-term EV market role.

24/7 Wall St.’s 2026 year-end price target for Rivian Automotive is bearish at $14.57 per share. That represents 18.6% downside potential from the stock’s current price. That target is based on Rivian facing existing weakness in the EV market due to the elimination of the federal tax credit. However, we see projected growth rates allowing revenue to rise from $4.8 billion in 2025 to $9.6 billion in 2030, alongside net losses improving from $4.69 per share in 2025 to break even by 2030.

Rivian Stock Price Prediction and Forecast 2025–2030

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