The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up by +1.28%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is up by +0.82%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up by +1.91%. December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ25) are up +1.27%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ25) are up +1.87%.
Stock indexes are sharply higher today, led by a sharp rebound in chip stocks following Wednesday’s rout. Micron Technology, the largest US memory-chip maker, is up more than +11% to lead chip stocks higher after giving an upbeat forecast for the current quarter, citing surging demand and supply shortages that are allowing the company to charge more for its products. Strength in the Magnificent Seven technology stocks today is also providing support to the overall market.
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Gains in stock indexes accelerated today after US weekly jobless claims fell as expected and a benign US inflation report showed that November consumer prices ex-food and energy rose at the slowest pace in 4.5 years. The easing price pressures also knocked bond yields lower and bolstered the outlook for additional Fed rate cuts. The 10-year T-note yield fell to a 1.5-week low of 4.10%.
US weekly initial unemployment claims fell -13,000 to 224,000, close to expectations of 225,000.
US Nov CPI rose +2.7% y/y, weaker than expectations of +3.1% y/y. Nov core CPI rose +2.6% y/y, weaker than expectations of +3.0% y/y and the smallest pace of increase in 4.5 years.
The US Dec Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey unexpectedly fell by -8.5 to -10.2, weaker than expectations of an increase to 2.3.
This week’s market focus will be on US economic news. On Friday, Nov existing home sales are expected to be up +1.2% m/m to 4.15 million. Also, the University of Michigan Dec consumer sentiment index is expected to be revised upward by +0.2 to 53.5 from the previously reported 53.3.
The markets are discounting a 27% chance that the FOMC will cut the fed funds target range by 25 bp at the next FOMC meeting on January 27-28.
Overseas stock markets are mixed today. The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +0.73%. China’s Shanghai Composite closed up +0.16%. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 fell to a 3-week low and closed down -1.03%.
Interest Rates
March 10-year T-notes (ZNH6) today are up by +9 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is down -4.1 bp to 4.112%. Mar T-notes climbed to a 1.5-week high today, and the 10-year T-note yield fell to a 1.5-week low of 4.10%.
T-notes are moving higher today on some Fed-friendly US economic reports. US Nov CPI rose less than expected, and the Dec Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey unexpectedly contracted, dovish factors for Fed policy. T-notes added to their today on falling inflation expectations after the 10-year breakeven inflation rate fell to an 8-month low today of 2.208%. Strength in stocks today is limiting the upside in T-notes.
The steepening yield curve is bearish for T-note prices. Steepening trades occur when bond investors buy short-term government debt and sell long -term debt. The yield curve has steepened since last Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, when the Fed said it would begin purchasing up to $40 billion of short-term T-bills a month to boost liquidity in the financial system. Longer-term Treasury securities are also under pressure from concerns about inflation and the Fed’s independence.
European government bond yields are mixed today. The 10-year German bund yield fell from an 8-month high of 2.897% and is down -0.9 bp to 2.855%. The 10-year UK gilt yield rebounded from a 1.5-week low of 4.439% and is up +1.0 bp to 4.485%.
The ECB, as expected, kept the deposit facility rate unchanged at 2.00%. The ECB raised its 2025 Eurozone GDP forecast to 1.4% from a prior forecast of 1.2% and kept its 2025 inflation ex-food and energy forecast unchanged at 2.4%.
ECB President Lagarde said the Eurozone economy has been “resilient” and the inflation outlook has been more uncertain than usual.
The BOE, as expected, in a 5-4 vote cut its official bank rate by -25 bp to 3.75% and said interest rates are likely to continue on a gradual downward path.
BOE Governor Bailey said, “With every interest rate cut the BOE makes, how much further we go becomes a closer call.”
Swaps are discounting a 1% chance for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at its next policy meeting on February 5.
US Stock Movers
Micron Technology (MU) is up more than +11% to lead chip makers higher after reporting Q1 revenue of $13.64 billion, stronger than the consensus of $12.95 billion, and forecasting Q2 revenue of $18.3 billion to $19.1 billion, well above the consensus of $14.38 billion. Also, Sandisk (SNDK) is up more than +9%, and Western Digital (WDC) is up more than +6%. In addition, Seagate Technology Holdings (STX) and Lam Research (LRCX) are up more than +5%, and KLA Corp (KLAC) is up more than +4%. Finally, Applied Materials (AMAT), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and ASML Holding NV (ASML) are up more than +3%.
The Magnificent Seven technology stocks are moving higher today, providing support to the overall market. Tesla (TSLA) is up more than +4%, and Amazon.com (AMZN) is up more than +3%. Also, Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), and Meta Platforms (META) are up more than +2%. In addition, Alphabet (GOOGL) is up more than +1%, and Apple (AAPL) is up +0.11%.
Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are climbing today as Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) is up more than +2%. Strategy (MSTR) and Riot Platforms (RIOT) are up more than +3%, and Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) and Coinbase Global (COIN) are up by more than +2%. Also, Mara Holdings (MARA) is up more than +1%.
Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) is up more than +35% after it agreed to merge with TAE Technologies in an all-stock transaction valued at more than $6 billion.
Lululemon Athletica (LULU) is up more than +5% after the Wall Street Journal reported that Elliot Investment Management has built a stake of more than $1 billion in the company.
GE Vernova (GEV) is up more than +5% after Jeffries upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $815.
Rivian Automotive (RIVN) is up more than +5% after Baird upgraded the stock to outperform from neutral with a price target of $25.
Cytokinetics (CYTK) is up more than +4% after Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $95.
Sherwin-Williams Co. (SHW) is up more than +1% after Citigroup upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $390.
Insmed (INSM) is down more than -16% after saying a mid-stage trial of its experimental therapy for inflammation of the nasal passages and sinuses failed to meet primary or secondary efficacy goals, prompting discontinuation of the program.
Birkenstock Holding Plc (BIRK) is down more than -8% after forecasting 2026 adjusted Ebitda of 700 million euros, well below the consensus of 757.8 million euros.
FactSet Research Systems (FDS) is down more than -5% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after forecasting full-year revenue of $2.42 billion to $2.45 billion, the midpoint below the consensus of $2.44 billion.
Cinemark Holdings (CNK) is down more than -2% after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to equal weight from overweight.
Maplebear Inc. (CART) is down more than -1% after Reuters reported the FTC is probing the company’s Eversight AI pricing tool.
Lennar (LEN) is down more than -1% after RBC Capital Markets downgraded the stock to underperform from sector perform with a price target of $95.
Earnings Reports(12/18/2025)
Accenture PLC (ACN), Birkenstock Holding Plc (BIRK), CarMax Inc (KMX), Cintas Corp (CTAS), Darden Restaurants Inc (DRI), FactSet Research Systems Inc (FDS), FedEx Corp (FDX), HEICO Corp (HEI), NIKE Inc (NKE).
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