Micron Technology (MU) will release its first-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings on Wednesday, Dec. 17. Market expectations remain high heading into the earnings. Management set an optimistic tone during the previous quarter’s conference call, indicating that the company could deliver record revenue and earnings for the first quarter.
Micron is benefitting from the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence (AI)-led data centers. These facilities require faster, higher-capacity, and more energy-efficient memory and storage solutions, driving demand for Micron’s products. Demand for both DRAM and NAND chips has been strengthening, and the company is also experiencing improved pricing conditions. Higher average selling prices, combined with rising volumes, position Micron for margin expansion and stronger earnings per share (EPS).
Despite these favorable fundamentals, recent history suggests caution is warranted. Micron’s shares have declined following each of the past four earnings announcements, even as operating performance has been solid. This pattern reflects that Micron stock has been highly sensitive to expectations and near-term guidance.
Further, the options market suggests traders expect a notable move in MU stock after the earnings release. Based on current contracts expiring Dec. 26, traders are implying a post-earnings move of about 9.7% in either direction. This is higher than Micron’s average post-earnings move of approximately 7% over the past four quarters.
Micron’s upcoming first-quarter results are likely to reflect the strong tailwinds from AI workloads and improving pricing dynamics. Demand from data centers remains the key growth catalyst, as the rapid expansion of AI servers and a rebound in traditional server deployments, are driving strong consumption of DRAM products. Moreover, the data center market will drive higher demand for its high-value memory solutions, supporting its top and bottom lines.
Micron’s High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) business is seeing strong growth. The HBM revenue had an annualized run rate of approximately $8 billion. This performance reflects the ramp of Micron’s HBM3E products, which are seeing broad adoption across leading AI platforms. Micron has expanded its HBM customer base, and the majority of its HBM3E supply is already priced and committed through 2026, providing revenue visibility in the coming quarters.
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